SWODY3
SPC AC 010729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU APR 01 2010
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ASHORE SRN CA
WILL CROSS SWRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS DAYS 1-2...THEN BEGIN EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS AR..MO AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY FROM LATE DAY-2 INTO
EARLY PART OF THIS PERIOD. THIS PERTURBATION EFFECTIVELY WILL FORM
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SEWD EXTENSION OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM
DAKOTAS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS PROCESS WILL LEAVE BEHIND
BROADLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED AND SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT FLOW/HEIGHT
PATTERN ALOFT FROM ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER GREAT LAKES.
SFC CYCLONE -- FCST INVOF SERN MN/NERN IA/WRN WI AROUND
3/12Z...SHOULD DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE ACROSS LS AROUND
04/00Z...THEN OVER NWRN ONT. TRAILING COLD FRONT...MEANWHILE...WILL
WEAKEN AND DECELERATE ACROSS PORTIONS TN...AL...SRN MS AND
CENTRAL/SERN LA...LIKELY BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY BY LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD.
...MS/AL TO IL/INDIANA REGION...
CONVECTION...MUCH OF IT LIKELY NOT SFC-BASED...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
BEGINNING OF PERIOD FROM WI SWD ACROSS PORTIONS IL...TN AND DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT PACE/EXTENT OF DIURNAL
HEATING...PRIND COMBINATION OF SUBTLE DIABATIC WARMING AND LOW-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION MAY YIELD SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS BY
MID-DAY FROM PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN IL AND INDIANA SWD ACROSS PORTIONS
TN VALLEY REGION. BAND OF TSTMS MAY CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP IN ZONE
OF STRONGLY FORCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR SVR
LEVELS...DESPITE MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG MOST
AREAS. THREAT SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS MS/AL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...UNDER WHAT
STILL WILL BE STG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION AND
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WINDS/SHEAR/CONVERGENCE...AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE MID-UPPER
ASCENT/SUPPORT WELL BEHIND UPPER TROUGH.
..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2010
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