Thursday, April 1, 2010

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010730
SWODY3
SPC AC 010729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU APR 01 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ASHORE SRN CA
WILL CROSS SWRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS DAYS 1-2...THEN BEGIN EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS AR..MO AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY FROM LATE DAY-2 INTO
EARLY PART OF THIS PERIOD. THIS PERTURBATION EFFECTIVELY WILL FORM
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SEWD EXTENSION OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM
DAKOTAS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS PROCESS WILL LEAVE BEHIND
BROADLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED AND SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT FLOW/HEIGHT
PATTERN ALOFT FROM ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER GREAT LAKES.

SFC CYCLONE -- FCST INVOF SERN MN/NERN IA/WRN WI AROUND
3/12Z...SHOULD DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE ACROSS LS AROUND
04/00Z...THEN OVER NWRN ONT. TRAILING COLD FRONT...MEANWHILE...WILL
WEAKEN AND DECELERATE ACROSS PORTIONS TN...AL...SRN MS AND
CENTRAL/SERN LA...LIKELY BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY BY LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD.

...MS/AL TO IL/INDIANA REGION...
CONVECTION...MUCH OF IT LIKELY NOT SFC-BASED...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
BEGINNING OF PERIOD FROM WI SWD ACROSS PORTIONS IL...TN AND DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT PACE/EXTENT OF DIURNAL
HEATING...PRIND COMBINATION OF SUBTLE DIABATIC WARMING AND LOW-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION MAY YIELD SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS BY
MID-DAY FROM PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN IL AND INDIANA SWD ACROSS PORTIONS
TN VALLEY REGION. BAND OF TSTMS MAY CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP IN ZONE
OF STRONGLY FORCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR SVR
LEVELS...DESPITE MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG MOST
AREAS. THREAT SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS MS/AL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...UNDER WHAT
STILL WILL BE STG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION AND
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WINDS/SHEAR/CONVERGENCE...AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE MID-UPPER
ASCENT/SUPPORT WELL BEHIND UPPER TROUGH.

..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: