SWODY3
SPC AC 220730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING STEADILY EWD/ENEWD...AND SHOULD BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE IL
VICINITY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A BROAD BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT
ON THE SERN QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD E OF THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGIONS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPS/MOVES NNEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL
SURGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/MID SOUTH REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/MID SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WITHIN AN
AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY THE MS RIVER ON THE W...THE OH VALLEY ON THE
N...AND THE APPALACHIANS ON THE E. WITHIN THIS AREA...A
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD
SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL...INCLUDING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SEVERAL TORNADOES.
WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION FORECAST DURING THE PRIOR FORECAST PERIOD...A
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SCENARIO WILL LIKELY EXIST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS PERIOD. HAVING SAID THAT...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INVOF THE MS/TN
VALLEYS...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SEVERAL WAVES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SMALL-SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST/CYCLONIC SWLYS
ALOFT.
WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT BENEATH RAPIDLY
VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROBUST/POTENTIALLY-TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AIDED BY
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. WITH TIME...THE OVERALL THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT EWD...AND
WHILE A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA INTO THE OH VALLEY...SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND AL...AND
EVENTUALLY WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
..GOSS.. 04/22/2010
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