SWOD48
SPC AC 010844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT THU APR 01 2010
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SVR IS LIKELY DURING SOME PARTS OF DAYS 5-6/5TH-7TH ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL CONUS...HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY OF ANY PROBABILISTIC
CONCENTRATIONS AOA 30% REMAINS TOO LOW. PHASING OF SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS NOW OVER BERING SEA AND GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF STG TROUGHING OVER WRN CONUS DURING THAT
PERIOD...PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS ROCKIES TO CENTRAL PLAINS. GREAT
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN PROGGED TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM....HOWEVER. SPECTRAL AND ITS PERTURBATIONS THAT FORM MREF
PACKAGE ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM THAN THEY ARE WITH 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF OR PRIOR/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. LATEST ECMWF DEPICTS LARGE/CLOSED 500 MB CYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR ORE COAST AT 6/00Z DAY-5 AND STG SHORTWAVE OVER
CENTRAL/SRN CA. UKMET SOLUTION IS ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN...WITH
STG/NEUTRAL-TILT SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR UT/NV BORDER SWD OVER LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. THESE ALREADY-LARGE DIFFERENCES BECOME EVEN GREATER
THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTING CHARACTER AND POSITION OF
LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS THAT ULTIMATELY WILL FOCUS ANY SVR THREATS
FROM DAY TO DAY.
..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2010
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