SWOD48
SPC AC 160842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE THAT A LARGE LOW/TROUGH --
INITIALLY OVER THE GULF OF AK -- SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
WRN U.S. WITH TIME...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.
MODELS ALSO AGREE...HOWEVER...THAT ONCE THIS FEATURE REACHES THE
SWRN STATES...IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EWD. WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS/CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION -- AT LEAST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE OVERALL
A SLOW INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE THAT A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW --
THUS PRECLUDING THE ADDITION OF A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 04/16/2010
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