SWOD48
SPC AC 180830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY THIS
FORECAST...BUT SUFFICIENT SIMILARITY STILL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN
CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER
MIDWEEK /I.E. THU. APR. 22/. WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME HIGH
PLAINS SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE AFTERNOON OF DAY 4 /WED. APR.
21/...STRONGER SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE LARGE/APPROACHING
UPPER SYSTEM DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH
MORE LIMITED/ISOLATED THREAT.
BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH PROGRESS
SUFFICIENTLY EWD IN BOTH MODELS TO RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS INVOF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ALONG THE LEE TROUGH -- RESULTING IN LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WITH LIKELIHOOD OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCING
BY MIDWEEK...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT AREA
FOR THU. APR. 22 /DAY 5/.
WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SLOW EWD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND -- LIKELY INCLUDING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PRECLUDE HIGHLIGHTING SPECIFIC AREAS
OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND DAY 5.
..GOSS.. 04/18/2010
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