SWOD48
SPC AC 200846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE APR 20 2010
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD
INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
PERIOD...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING/SHIFTING MORE NEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 6 AND BEYOND...BUT AGREEMENT IS
SUFFICIENT DAYS 4-5 /FRI. AND SAT. APR. 24-25/ TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IT APPEARS ATTM THAT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST DAY 4 /FRI THE 24TH/...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
APPARENT ATTM FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SSWWD INTO SERN TX. HERE...A
MOIST/UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...AND WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR -- INCLUDING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 KT -- ATOP THE
FRONTAL ZONE...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION DAY 5 /SAT. THE 25TH/...WITH A SIMILARLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT. BOTH DAYS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WHILE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLY-STRONG SHEAR
ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL.
COMBINATION OF THE DECREASING MODEL AGREEMENT AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DAY 6 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TURNS MORE NELY
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A THREAT AREA. NONETHELESS...SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST -- PARTICULARLY E OF THE MS AND S OF THE
OH VALLEYS.
..GOSS.. 04/20/2010
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