Thursday, April 29, 2010

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290855
SWOD48
SPC AC 290854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GFS...ECMWF AND MREF MEMBERS MAINTAIN SIMILAR SOLUTIONS INTO DAY 4
/SUNDAY/ WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN. THE BROAD
POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EXIST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
MS VALLEY WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD. IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SERN U.S. ALONG SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND
ONGOING STORMS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT.

..DIAL.. 04/29/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: