MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0255

ACUS11 KWNS 052105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052104
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-052200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT MON APR 05 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN IA...NRN MO...NERN KS AND SERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48...

VALID 052104Z - 052200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48
CONTINUES.

PARTS OF NERN KS/NRN MO/FAR SERN NEB BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO
WATCH.

A HAIL THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 48...WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING
ONGOING TSTMS CONFINED AT THIS TIME TO THE IA PORTION OF THIS
WATCH...AND STRONGEST STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL IA. THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINS ELEVATED NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT HAS CONTINUED TO RETREAT
NWD AND AT 20Z EXTENDED NEWD FROM WRN KS INTO NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO
/N OF STJ/...AND THEN ESEWD THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL IL/ IND.

MEANWHILE...INCREASING CU FIELD...WITH MODERATE TO TOWERING CU...
WAS OBSERVED OVER FAR NERN KS AND ALSO FARTHER E OVER NRN MO /40
S-SSW OF IRK/ PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INCREASING CU
FIELD OVER NERN KS IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN SINCE IT IS LOCATED NE
OF THE TRIPLE POINT. 18Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP ROOTED
JUST ABOVE 850 MB. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL-ERN KS ARE
VEERING TO S/SWLY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIR
MASS FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE MIDDLE
80S...DESPITE A REDUCTION IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS...SUGGESTS THIS CAP
WILL BE WEAKENED ALLOWING FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT... STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /AROUND 50 KT/ AND LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE PER 40-50 KT SWLY
LLJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. TEMPERATURE AND
SBCINH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED WITH A NEW WW POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

..PETERS.. 04/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 42249515 42269147 40379125 39339205 39389444 39379593
39819637 40939587 42249515

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