MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0287

ACUS11 KWNS 072244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072243
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-072345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/WRN AND N CENTRAL INDIANA/SERN MO/WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 62...

VALID 072243Z - 072345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 62 CONTINUES.

EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE
LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY ATTM...NEW WW EWD INTO MORE OF INDIANA/KY MAY
NOT BE REQUIRED -- THOUGH LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF WW 61 IN TIME/AREA MAY
BE NEEDED.

SEVERAL STRONG CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN IL/SWRN INDIANA
ATTM...THOUGH CONVECTION FARTHER N -- ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN THIRD
OF THE WATCH -- HAS WEAKENED.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS E
OF THE WATCH - PARTICULARLY FROM THE OH VALLEY NWD...AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES DEPICT VERY LITTLE CAPE AND A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.

WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD E OF THE WATCH AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES THIS EVENING...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME/EWD
EXTENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT HOUR PRIOR TO THE
EXPIRATION OF WW 61...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT A NEW WW MAY NOT BE
NEEDED.

..GOSS.. 04/07/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...
LSX...

LAT...LON 36619086 39178849 40878756 40958572 39258602 36588715
36619086

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