MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0304

ACUS11 KWNS 111943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111943
TXZ000-NMZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH PARTS OF WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111943Z - 112145Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
TX AND SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. WW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS UNLIKELY...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE SWWD INTO SERN NM THEN SWD TO JUST E OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS IN WRN TX. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SPREAD WWD INTO SERN
NM...AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF CLOVIS ALONG THE
DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGER. OTHER STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING ALONG SRN END OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN NM AND
FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF WRN TX. AXIS OF CLEARING
HAS PROMOTED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING FROM FAR WRN TX NWD THROUGH ERN
NM. HOWEVER...12Z RAOB FROM MIDLAND INDICATED ONLY A SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW DEWPOINTS
MIXING DOWN INTO THE 40S. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...THE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITING MLCAPE TO AOB 500
J/KG IN THIS REGION.

THE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WWD...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR REGIME FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS.
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..DIAL.. 04/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32480301 31030255 30290304 30410368 31710457 32910459
33850375 34380301 34670234 34580199 34200204 33690262
32480301

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