SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112332
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-120130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK INTO PARTS OF SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112332Z - 120130Z
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
A WEAK BUT FOCUSED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY BE AIDING THE CONTINUING SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS. STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
SCATTERED...BUT LIGHT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS
SUPPORTING PROPAGATION INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
KANSAS. AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO
COOL THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN SIZABLE LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND DEVELOPING SURFACE
COLD POOLS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND SUPPORT UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION THE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS.
..KERR.. 04/11/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35390048 36050065 36710056 37120026 37069894 36349820
35369841 34599890 34139942 33719967 33580067 34410085
35390048
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