SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130329
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN NORTH DAKOTA...NERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WRN/SRN
MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 130329Z - 130530Z
THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...IN NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST BAND ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...APPEAR IN
RESPONSE TO STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC DEFORMATION AXIS. AS A LARGE UPSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE THIS EVENING...LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FORCING WILL TEND TO DEVELOP
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/ NORTHWESTERN AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO FILL IN BY
THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...RETURNING MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CAPE OF 500 TO 1000+ J/KG FOR PARCELS
REACHING THEIR LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT SHEAR WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL EVER BECOME
PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS INTO/THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..KERR.. 04/13/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 48549948 48889802 48359603 47169542 46309489 45289388
44339313 44099382 44679514 45219601 45899771 47099841
48549948
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