SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131839
NDZ000-132045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 70...
VALID 131839Z - 132045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 70
CONTINUES.
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CNTRL ND...AND PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD REQUIRE A TORNADO WATCH.
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER FAR SW ND INTO
NWRN SD. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW PLUME OF TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S AS FAR NW AS DICKINSON. JUST TO THE N AND E...A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CNTRL ND...NEAR BISMARCK AT 18Z.
AREA VWPS INDICATE EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE. MODIFIED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE NEARLY STRAIGHT N AND SOMEWHAT PERPENDICULAR TO THE
WARM FRONT...CONTINUED HEATING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG IT SUGGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES AS THEY CROSS THE WARM FRONT BEFORE
BECOMING ELEVATED N OF IT.
.JEWELL.. 04/13/2010
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47030303 47510270 47540103 47249918 46439802 46019905
46100142 47030303
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