Sunday, April 18, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0323

ACUS11 KWNS 182259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182258
FLZ000-190030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TIP OF FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182258Z - 190030Z

AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SRN TIP OF
THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A WW. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.


EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
JUST NORTH OF MIAMI WWD THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA.
CONVECTION...SOME WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...IS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE ZONE OF LIFT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
ACTIVITY HAS LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY VERY DEEP OR ROBUST. HOWEVER...A BELT OF 30-35 KT FLOW
ATTENDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE PENINSULA IS
RESULTING IN 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN A NARROW ZONE AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN
LARGER 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS THAN FARTHER SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR. THREAT
DIMINISHES WITH NWD EXTENT FROM THE BOUNDARY AS THE CONVECTION
BECOMES ELEVATED AND WEAKENS UPON MOVING DEEPER INTO THE COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

LAT...LON 25888010 25588042 25478085 25788099 26078051 26298006
25888010

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