SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201940
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-202045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH PLAINS OF SE CO...NE NM AND FAR WRN TX/OK
PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201940Z - 202045Z
A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SE CO...NE NM AND THE FAR WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO LEE SFC TROUGH
AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS NEAR PUB. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY OVER THE FRONT RANGE...AND MORE
RECENTLY INTO SE CO AND NE NM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WHERE A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. VEERING
WIND PROFILE WILL YIELD 25-35 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR PER AREA
VWP/PROFILER DATA...DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW. MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE MAY OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.
..ROGERS.. 04/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36120386 36850399 37390408 37960404 38250376 38190301
37830278 36980266 36220259 35600281 35580368 36120386
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