SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212329
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-220100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM/NWRN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...
VALID 212329Z - 220100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72
CONTINUES.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AT 23Z...REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WERE OCCURRING JUST TO THE NNE OF TAD IN SERN CO...WHILE FARTHER SE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NERN NM. HI-RES
RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND SRV DATA FROM KPUX INDICATE THAT THE CELLS IN
CO AND NM HAVE DEVELOPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
LAST HOUR OR SO AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE E TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED BETWEEN RTN AND TAD...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-SEWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THEN SSE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. E OF THE WARM FRONT...COOL ESELY WINDS CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...THOUGH STABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LARGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. W OF THE WARM FRONT...RELATIVELY STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
REDUCED CINH...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RESIDING AROUND 500-1000 J/KG.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND REDUCED CAPE
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE
OUTSIDE OF THE ERN EDGE OF WW 72 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL E-SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN
MCS...AND ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 72.
.GARNER.. 04/21/2010
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35490415 38130479 38110275 35490219 35490415
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