Sunday, April 25, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0403

ACUS11 KWNS 260310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260310
FLZ000-260445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106...

VALID 260310Z - 260445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106
CONTINUES.

WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THIS WW MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED WITHIN THIS HOUR
FOR INCREASING TORNADO PROBABILITIES...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE NEW WW
ISSUANCE THAT ALSO WOULD EXTEND SOMEWHAT S OF CURRENT WW TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND MORE OF SWRN COAST.

RADAR TRENDS AND SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER BOW ECHO HAS STALLED ACROSS PORTIONS TBW AREA...AND
MANATEE/HARDEE/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ON W END AND RETREAT NEWD SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH
SUFFICIENT/RESIDUAL VORTICITY TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
TORNADOES FOR ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE STORM INTERACTING WITH IT.
MIXTURE OF BOTH CLUSTERED AND DISCRETE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT OF BACKING/STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. VWP OUT OF TBW ACCORDINGLY INDICATE FAVORABLY
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE PRESENT ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY...WITH 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 300 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALSO...I.E. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
50 KT OVER AND JUST S OF BOUNDARY. BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS ALSO MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES...LOCALLY ENHANCING WIND
DAMAGE THREAT. AIR MASS NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS 70S F
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 27918282 28598177 28548067 26958009 26968063 26778090
25828090 25798140 25938165 25828168 25998179 26438188
26498202 26418202 26438216 26538225 26778230 27168248
27458269 27598280 27698268 27918282

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