SWODY1
SPC AC 020547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE
NERN STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE-TILT UPR TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY WITH THE PARENT LOW SITUATED
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVEL FROM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO QUEBEC AS A
LWR-LATITUDE IMPULSE PROGRESSES NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH TO THE OH VLY BY 12Z MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A LOW ASSOCD WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD
FROM IND INTO QUE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE TRAILING CDFNT SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE UPR OH VLY AND THE LWR GRTLKS REGION. A WEAKER LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TN VLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE SAME
FRONT...EVENTUALLY MOVING NEWD DURING THE NIGHT INTO THE MID OH VLY.
UPSTREAM...A NEW CDFNT WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND
CNTRL PLAINS.
...LWR MS VLY TO THE NERN STATES...
A STRONG AND BROAD SSWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT A MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS /DEW POINTS 60S TO LWR 70S/ FROM THE CNTRL GULF
COAST INTO THE NERN STATES ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO ASCERTAIN DEGREE OF CLOUD-COVER...ESPECIALLY FROM THE OH VLY NEWD
TO NY...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER A BROAD ZONE...STRONGEST ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VLY/GULF
COAST.
A SIZABLE REGION OF BKN-BANDED STRUCTURE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT
12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VLYS NWD INTO THE MIDWEST WITHIN
A STRONG CORE OF THE LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL BE THRIVING IN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUCH THAT MORNING ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.
A COMPARATIVELY STRONGER RISK FOR SVR TSTMS WILL UNFOLD DURING THE
AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VLY/DEEP SOUTH ALONG SRN FRINGES OF
MORNING ACTIVITY. HERE...PERSISTENT INFLUX OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND EXPECTED STRONGER HEATING WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD STORM
INITIATION ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINES. MIXED-CONVECTIVE
MODES WILL BE LIKELY AND TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
PRIMARY RISKS.
FARTHER N...SECONDARY LLJ MAX WILL MIGRATE NEWD TO THE W OF THE
APLCN MTNS TOWARD NY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN...BOOSTING
BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. ENHANCED WAA PROFILE
AND AT LEAST MODEST HEATING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR BOTH MAINTAINING
UPSTREAM OH VLY ACTIVITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS BY AFTN FROM
WRN NY TO THE UPR OH VLY. ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG
WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE. FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT A MARGINAL
TORNADO ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO EXIST.
...CNTRL PLAINS/CORN BELT...
REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH RELATIVELY COLD MID-LVL TEMPERATURES OF
M22-M24 DEG C SUNDAY. STRONG HEATING AND RIBBON OF 40S SFC DEW
POINTS AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT WILL AID IN DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
MULTICELL TSTMS FROM PARTS OF IA/MO WWD INTO AT LEAST CNTRL KS.
MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.
..RACY/HURLBUT.. 05/02/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment