SWODY1
SPC AC 170556
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTH AMERICA
TODAY/TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST-SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...WHILE THE EASTERN
MOST PORTION OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/NC VICINITY. FARTHER WEST...THE LEADING BRUNT
OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CA/GREAT
BASIN.
...TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE TN VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AMIDST MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE ESE-MOVING COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KY/TN...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE WARM
SECTOR DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE/TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO INTO MUCH OF
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. WHILE MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ONLY BE AROUND
20-25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS...VEERING
WIND PROFILES AND GENERALLY AROUND 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL
ADEQUATELY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WHILE SEVERE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL TEND TO WANE IN MOST LOCALES BY
MID EVENING...A MODESTLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY...WITH SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE/MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION AMIDST
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY YIELD SOME
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
..GUYER/ROGERS.. 05/17/2010
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