SWODY1
SPC AC 100057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ACROSS NRN
TX INTO OK AND SRN KS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ON THE
ERN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAINLY IN CNTRL AND ERN OK WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. THIS
IS KEEPING THE STORMS ELEVATED AND SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM CNTRL KS
SEWD ACROSS NE OK INTO THE OZARKS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 500 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM ABOUT
-10C NEAR THE RED RIVER TO -15C IN NRN KANSAS. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SHEAR IN THE 700 MB TO 500 MB LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WCNTRL TX...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION
IS TRYING TO INITIATE ON THE WEST EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
THE MTNS OF WEST TX. THIS CONVECTION MAY DRIFT EWD TO AREAS SOUTH OF
ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO LATER TONIGHT POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN PARTS OF WCNTRL TX
FOR THIS CONDITIONAL POSSIBILITY.
..BROYLES.. 05/10/2010
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