SWODY1
SPC AC 311237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CO/KS/OK/TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/SC/NC...
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NOW
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHEAST
STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NUMEROUS AREAS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.
...CO/KS/OK/TX...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
OK. THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS HAS HELPED TO PUSH A
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM WHERE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST
CO/NORTHEAST NM. THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO SOUTHERN KS...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN OK. STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...HELPING TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND
THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CAUGHT IN THE INCREASING WESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...AND BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MORNING RAOBS
SHOW AMPLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING OVER GA/SC/NC WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS TODAY. COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AOB -10C AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
...EASTERN NY...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES...WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NY.
UPPER RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF DAY WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/31/2010
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