SWODY1
SPC AC 161252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE S CNTRL
U.S....
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE E
PACIFIC FURTHER AMPLIFIES AND ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT OFF THE W CST
EARLY MON. FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT THE SFC. A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL MOVE ENE FROM WRN TN TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHILE A DIFFUSE FRONT PERSISTS IN ITS WAKE FROM NRN AR W/NW
TO THE SRN/CNTRL HI PLNS.
...SRN PLNS INTO SRN OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
WHILE FLOW IN MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...A 30-40 KT WLY
MID LVL JET WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER OK AND N TX ON SRN SIDE OF
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE CNTRL PLNS UPR LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONABLY COOL MID LVL TEMPS /AROUND MINUS 15 C AT
500 MB/. COUPLED WITH PWS OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES AND MODERATE TO
STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT NUMEROUS
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THAT DEEP FLOW OVER REGION REMAIN CYCLONIC
NATURE THROUGH THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES
AMPLIFY ESEWD FROM THE CNTRL/CNTRL RCKYS. WEAK LOW LVL FLOW
SURMOUNTED BY LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS...WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR HAIL. FARTHER S...OTHER
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...MAY REDEVELOP/EVOLVE FROM ONGOING
CLUSTER NOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND. AVAILABILITY OF RICH MOISTURE IN
THIS REGION MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR TO YIELD A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE SVR THREAT
THROUGHOUT THE S CNTRL STATES SHOULD DIMINISH ...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VANISH...WITH SUNSET.
...SERN STATES...
OTHER STRONG STORMS SHOULD FROM WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG/S OF THE
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE/SFC LOW OVER REGION. MODEST DEEP SHEAR AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO BANDS/SMALL
CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
...ORE/SRN WA...
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE MID LVL IMPULSES CROSS REGION AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE TROUGH. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/ INSTABILITY AND
MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSW WIND FIELD MAY YIELD
SOME STRONG/SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVE OVER W
CNTRL ORE AND POSSIBLY SRN WA.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/16/2010
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