SWODY1
SPC AC 051936
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT WED MAY 05 2010
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...OH VALLEY THROUGH LOWER GREAT LAKES...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED. ATMOSPHERE IS
DESTABILIZING SOUTH OF COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SRN LOWER
MI...NWRN IND INTO CNTRL IL. STORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT
AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
EWD THROUGH WRN NY AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. REFERENCE SWOMCD 481 FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..DIAL.. 05/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 05 2010/
...OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
/SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ FROM NRN IND INTO SERN LOWER MI AND
NWRN OH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-50KT BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND. INITIAL DISCRETE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BEFORE STORMS FURTHER
ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND POSE A GREATER CHANCE OF
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MODEST TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SOME LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
COULD ALSO LEAD TO A BRIEF TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY FAVORABLY
ORIENTED LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
SQUALL LINE WITH FAST-MOVING SMALL BOWS AND SOME WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN NY/NW PA THROUGH THE
EVE. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE AS DIURNAL
COOLING SETS IN AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WEAKENS.
...PAC NW...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS WA/ORE/ID THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT WITH THE LOW AND
DIMINISHING STATIC STABILITY...COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. A FEW OF THE MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED AND
OF RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY.
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