SWODY1
SPC AC 061632
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2010
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEB/KS BORDER ACROSS MO RIVER
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATER TODAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OF NOTE WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE...BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM BAJA TO THE GOM.
...NEB/KS BORDER ACROSS MO RIVER VALLEY...
DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER CO AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
KS/NEB...MOISTURE REMAINS INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE ONLY GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED
DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS OK AND OZARKS IS DRAWN NWD/NWWD
THROUGH ISALLOBARIC FORCING. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MAY FURTHER AID
MOISTURE FLUX INVOF DEEPENING CYCLONE AND DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT...EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM NWRN KS TO WRN MO BY THIS
EVENING.
EML PLUME/INVERSION EVIDENT IN AMA AND DDC MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOULD
KEEP WARM SECTOR EFFECTIVELY CAPPED AS HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SBCAPE OF ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE LOW/DRYLINE AND RETREATING WARM FRONT. STRONG CAP AND
LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST
THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE DECOUPLED FROM
SURFACE LAYER...OR AT LEAST VERY HIGH-BASED...AND OCCUR IN AREAS OF
STRONGEST FORCED ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
NEAR/NORTH OF THE LEE CYCLONE.
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FORECAST FROM NERN
CO TO NEB/KS BORDER AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF INITIATION POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER MO. LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS AND HAIL PRODUCTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS INITIATING IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND ATOP
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH...AND INTENSIFYING
LLJ /MOISTURE AND MASS FLUX/ THROUGH LATE EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. MCS EVOLUTION APPEARS QUITE
POSSIBLE FROM NRN KS INTO NEB...AND EAST INTO MO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED/MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. IT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT COULD SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO...THROUGH EARLY FRI FROM NERN KS INTO
WRN MO.
...FL...
WEAK WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL AID
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CELL MERGERS ALONG EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK INHIBITION AND STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PULSE/WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STORMS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE NOW
MOVING ACROSS NY/VT. A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AREA...EWD TO MAINE...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...LACK OF GREATER FORCING...AND POST-FRONTAL
REGIME...WOULD SUGGEST TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN
FARTHER NORTH SO SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM SRN
NEW ENGLAND.
...AREA 1...
..CARBIN/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/06/2010
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