SWODY1
SPC AC 051629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED MAY 05 2010
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE OH VLY AND LWR GRT
LKS...
...OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
/SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ FROM NRN IND INTO SERN LOWER MI AND
NWRN OH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-50KT BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND. INITIAL DISCRETE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS BEFORE STORMS FURTHER
ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND POSE A GREATER CHANCE OF
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MODEST TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND SOME LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
COULD ALSO LEAD TO A BRIEF TORNADO...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY FAVORABLY
ORIENTED LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
SQUALL LINE WITH FAST-MOVING SMALL BOWS AND SOME WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN NY/NW PA THROUGH THE
EVE. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE AS DIURNAL
COOLING SETS IN AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WEAKENS.
...PAC NW...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS WA/ORE/ID THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT WITH THE LOW AND
DIMINISHING STATIC STABILITY...COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. A FEW OF THE MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED AND
OF RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY.
..CARBIN/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/05/2010
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