SWODY1
SPC AC 091959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...
PRIOR FORECAST REASONING UNCHANGED BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA/SHORT TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED
ACROSS MUCH OF TX INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE MOST PROBABLE
POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTH OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT AND/OR IN VICINITY
OF SOUTHWEST TX HIGHER TERRAIN. ONGOING CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME NEAR-SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BIT MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL IS STILL
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK TO MO/AR AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES/STRONG ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMMENCES.
..GUYER.. 05/09/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010/
...OK/KS/AR/MO...
FLAT ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES...AS
ONE UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS MAINE AND AWAY FROM THE NATION...AND
ANOTHER BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER CA. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND RESULT IN RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH TIME...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
CELLS. THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE AFTER DARK
TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE HIGH BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE SPARSE AND NOT WARRANTING A SLIGHT RISK.
...TX...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR
SOUTH OF THE RETREATING FRONT...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S AND
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 2500-3000 J/KG. MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT CINH WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MEXICO...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT FORM IN
THIS REGION. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AND
LONGEVITY OF STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
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