SWODY1
SPC AC 291611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COAST STATES FROM LA TO
GA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD TO THE
DAKOTAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
COLD TROUGH NWRN U.S. WILL BE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ROCKIES INTO NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS UPPER PATTERN WRN U.S. GRADUALLY DE AMPLIFIES.
DOWNSTREAM UPPER HIGH OVER OH VALLEY WITH CUT-OFF LOW HAVING BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT CENTRAL MS.
...GULF COAST STATES...
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW CENTRAL MS WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID
LEVEL AIR MASS AND LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7C/KM ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
GULF STATES FROM LA EWD. WHILE THE OVERALL MARGINAL SHEAR WILL
FAVOR PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST
AIR MASS WITH PW/S OF 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER...POTENTIALLY MLCAPES OF
2000 J/KG OR GREATER...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS RECEIVING STRONG
MORNING HEATING WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON MUCH OF GULF STATES AREA.
LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE COMMON IN THE MOST
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS. REGION FROM SERN LA EWD TO S OF UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION INTO SRN AL/SWRN GA APPEARS TO HAVE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL BASED ON ABOVE DISCUSSED CONDITIONS AND HAVE BEEN UPGRADED
TO A SLIGHT RISK.
OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM
TN VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES WHERE LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ARE
WEAKER.
...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING EWD FROM
CENTRAL MT TO ERN UT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL...INCREASE LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING THE INITIAL STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO ND. VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR WEAKENS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL INTENSE/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THE TIME OF INITIATION
OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SWWD INTO NERN CO TO VICINITY
DEN.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN NY/PA AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE
REPORTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A NEED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
..HALES/JIRAK.. 05/29/2010
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