SWODY2
SPC AC 040456
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT MON MAY 03 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SERN LOWER MI...PARTS
OF IND/OH AND A SMALL PART OF NWRN PA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
PROGRESS RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC IN RESPONSE TO
THE SEWD PROGRESSION...AND CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION...OF AN UPSTREAM
SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY ARCING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND THEN NWWD TO A
DEEPENING CYCLONE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
...UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH CONTRIBUTES TO THE EROSION
OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESIDE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A STRONG
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WITH RESULTING HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING
SOME LOW-LEVEL...CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND 45-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED
SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH THE COOLING AND
STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..MEAD.. 05/04/2010
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