SWODY2
SPC AC 050514
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT WED MAY 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...FAR SERN
NEB...NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK INITIALLY OVER MT/ID/WY WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WEAKER...LOW LATITUDE
IMPULSE MAY PRECEDE THE PRIMARY SYSTEM ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
AT THE SURFACE..A CYCLOGENETIC LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN CO WILL
DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS THURSDAY PRIOR TO
ACCELERATING NEWD INTO MO OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE
LOW SEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NWD...REACHING THE LOWER MO VALLEY ESEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE.
MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN THROUGH THE DAY
FROM THE MIGRATORY LOW PRESSURE SWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF KS/OK INTO
W-CNTRL TX. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD
FRONT SURGING SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
...KS EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO IL...
EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 60S DEW POINTS INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT
WHERE PBL MIXING WILL BE SHALLOWER...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 50S OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THURSDAY.
CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED EML IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED...DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR DESPITE MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG.
05/00Z MESOSCALE MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO AROUND 07/00Z. THIS AREA WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG THE NERN EXTENSION OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS AND WITHIN EXIT
REGION OF A SLY LLJ WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY BETWEEN
07/00Z-03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TORNADO
POTENTIAL REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...HAIL WILL BE QUITE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
EXPECT ELEVATED TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NRN MO/SRN IA EWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF IL. HERE...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN
EXIT REGION OF LLJ...TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1000 J PER KG/...THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH THE THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
..MEAD.. 05/05/2010
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