SWODY3
SPC AC 050708
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT WED MAY 05 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO
LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK
WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY
THREE PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM NEXT DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WRN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER MO WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A
STRONG...TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS.
...OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
DESPITE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S/...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STRONG AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MOBILE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY...WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
FAST-MOVING LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE STRONG WLY WIND
FIELD AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER BY
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FAIRLY SIZABLE
SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE. HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THE PROGRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SUGGESTS
THAT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...NAMELY ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA.
..MEAD.. 05/05/2010
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