SWODY3
SPC AC 060700
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WHILE DEVELOPING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NEWD
ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE FARTHER W...THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CA COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN OCCLUDING
SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER UPSTATE NY WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO QUEBEC
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO YIELD AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A STRONG WSWLY WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO THE INTENSIFYING
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.
...THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...
THE CURRENT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS INDICATED BY 06/00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY. DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...AS WILL THE STRENGTH OF
THE WIND FIELD. NONETHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
..MEAD.. 05/06/2010
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