SWODY3
SPC AC 120730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN
SOME WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
ACCELERATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF REMNANT TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE LATTER FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST BROADLY
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE A WEAK TO
MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT RICHER GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BECOME CUT-OFF ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND OHIO
VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY.
A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE FLATTENING UPPER
RIDGE COULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...STABILIZING
LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER CAPE IN ITS VICINITY COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MORE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
MODERATING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...AS LARGE- SCALE
FORCING REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
..KERR.. 05/12/2010
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