SWODY3
SPC AC 150718
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX...
...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
INTO THE OZARKS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN AXIS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX. THE MODEL
FORECASTS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AS THE CAP WEAKENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z ACROSS WEST TX SHOW
ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
IS THAT FORCING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WHICH MAY KEEP
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED.
..BROYLES.. 05/15/2010
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