SWODY3
SPC AC 160712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND THE
TX PANHANDLE...
...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE
SFC...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS WEST TX EXTENDING NNWWD INTO
SE CO WHERE MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
FROM SE CO SSEWD ONTO THE CAPROCK OF WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WOULD BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED.
..BROYLES.. 05/16/2010
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