DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180729
SWODY3
SPC AC 180728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...ARKLATX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
AROUND MIDDAY SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
MODEL FORECAST SHOWING SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F AS FAR NORTH AS SRN
ARK. AS A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE NAM...GFS AND NAMKF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INITIATING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS JET SHOULD CREATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR TO ABOUT 50 KT WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE
NAM AND NAMKF APPEAR TO ORGANIZE A LINE OF STORMS THURSDAY EVENING
SUGGESTING ROTATING STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN A
SQUALL-LINE.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ELEVATED STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH DISCRETE
STORMS INITIATING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. SOME
OF THE STRONGER CORES MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS STORMS CONGEAL IN THE EARLY EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE
SCENARIO ABOVE...AN UPGRADE TO THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

..BROYLES.. 05/18/2010

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