SWOD48
SPC AC 040843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2010
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
04/00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON DAY 4 /FRI MAY 7TH/. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAST-MOVING...COLD FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A SIZABLE SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THEREAFTER...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES BY DAY
5 INTO DAY 6 /SAT MAY 8TH INTO SUN MAY 9TH/. AND THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEWD EJECTION OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON DAY 7 /MON MAY
10TH/. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN
INTRA-MODEL VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE. THEREFORE...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE
DELINEATED ATTM.
..MEAD.. 05/04/2010
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