Sunday, May 9, 2010

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090847
SWOD48
SPC AC 090846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z GEFS/GFS/ECMWF SHOW REASONABLE CONSISTENCY IN THE HANDLING OF
THE NEXT UPR TROUGH...TAKING IT FROM THE GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS AS A POSITIVE-TILT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AND NWRN OK WITHIN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MID-LVL JET WHERE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL COEXIST WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AS THE CAP ERODES...NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING CDFNT. ALTHOUGH STRONGER UPR FLOW
WILL PROBABLY EXIST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE WARM SECTOR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN/WRN OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE EXPANDING NEWD
INTO THE CORN BELT BY EARLY THURSDAY.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPR FLOW REGIME BECOMES CHAOTIC WITH UNCERTAINTY
INCREASING IN THE TIMING OF LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVES TRAVERSING THE
SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS.

..RACY.. 05/09/2010

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