SWOD48
SPC AC 170858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD MOVING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY/DAY 4. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS THURSDAY WITH
THIS SEVERE THREAT MOVING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY/DAY 5.
FURTHER WEST...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. MOVING THIS FEATURE EWD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY/DAY 6. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL HELP
ESTABLISH A LARGE WARM SECTOR BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE MS
VALLEY MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT UNTIL SUNDAY/DAY 7
WHEN A MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS SOLUTION ENDS UP
BEING CLOSE TO ACCURATE. IN SPITE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...PREDICTABILITY
CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER EXTENT FOR ANY GIVEN DAY REMAINS LOW.
..BROYLES.. 05/17/2010
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