SWOD48
SPC AC 180858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A LARGE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 5. THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FROM HERE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IN THE SW U.S BY SUNDAY/DAY 6 AND THE GFS MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LEAD SYSTEM MOVING
NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO CORRECT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO
MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE IN THE NRN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...SEVERE THREAT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA IN
THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 05/18/2010
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