SWOD48
SPC AC 190829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN
U.S. ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. A BROAD WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NNEWD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DAKOTAS. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY...AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND DEEPENING THE
WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY/DAY 6. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE TO CORRECT. FOR TUESDAY/DAY
7 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A BROAD
AREA OF INSTABILITY IN THE CNTRL STATES BUT KEEP THE STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY AND MONDAY HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN
PLAINS...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW FOR SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE.
..BROYLES.. 05/19/2010
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