SWOD48
SPC AC 200856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON SUNDAY/DAY 4...A BROAD BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AND MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY. ON MONDAY/DAY 5...THE GFS ROTATES PART OF WRN U.S.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING
THE TROUGH FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROMOTE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON TUESDAY/DAY 6...THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FURTHER EAST SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID-MO VALLEY. AGAIN...THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEAMPLIFIED AND IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE NCNTRL STATES...A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND THE PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK
AREA.
..BROYLES.. 05/20/2010
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