SWOD48
SPC AC 230854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LOW...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED OR
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AN
INTENSIFYING ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
AND BEGIN TO NOSE TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING THIS
DEVELOPMENT...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON A DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...WHICH COULD ACCELERATE INLAND AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES IN A MANNER THAT COULD SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE NEXT SUNDAY. GIVEN
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAY 7-8 EXTENDED TIME
FRAME.../LOW POTENTIAL/ CATEGORIZATION WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS
PERIOD VERSUS /PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW/.
..KERR.. 05/23/2010
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