SWOD48
SPC AC 270857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATIVE THAT PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OUTRUNS STRONGER MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AT LEAST INITIALLY SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA.
SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
ACTUALLY EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...WITHIN A
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TO THE
NORTH OF THE STALLING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT. THEREAFTER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS REMAINS
LARGE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITH A STRONGER BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREAS NEXT WEEK.
..KERR.. 05/27/2010
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