SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051852
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-052045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT WED MAY 05 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE LWR MI...PARTS OF NRN/ERN IND AND WRN/NRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051852Z - 052045Z
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED BY
20-21Z.
FAIRLY RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS NOW UNDERWAY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR IS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL /CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000/ AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MAY CONTINUE TO LAG TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT LIFT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
GRADUAL EROSION OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. INITIATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE
DURING THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO...PERHAPS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... INCLUDING
THE DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA...PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR
BENEATH 50+ KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO QUICKLY
EVOLVE INTO A LINE...BUT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
LEAST INITIALLY...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE HAIL AT LEAST UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SIZABLE
SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD THEN CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND CONGEALING... EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD POOLS...WITH STORM MOTION AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ENHANCED
BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW FIELDS STRENGTHENING TO 35-40+
KTS.
..KERR.. 05/05/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 42558037 41688094 40858225 40318397 39828481 40178575
40658579 41388451 41738395 42508300 42518288 42818192
42888112 42558037
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