SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061510
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-061715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN NY STATE...NRN VT AND NH INTO MAINE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061510Z - 061715Z
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A TONGUE
OF MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BENEATH UPPER
TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CAPE ACROSS THE REGION. AND...THIS
INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN
NOW AND 18-20Z...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. 40-45 KT MEAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER WESTERLY FLOW MAY ALSO
ENHANCE STORM MOTIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCASIONALLY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS... CONDITIONS
STILL SEEM TO WEAK/MARGINAL TO REQUIRE A WATCH.
..KERR.. 05/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 47276752 46036797 44596996 44117245 44047404 44277459
45707358 46677253 48017120 48116908 47276752
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