Friday, May 7, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0491

ACUS11 KWNS 070449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070449
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...SE NEB...NW MO...FAR SE IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 142...

VALID 070449Z - 070615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 142
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS WW 142 AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE WRN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS.

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN KS LOCATED
ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDS
EWD ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE MCS DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON
WSR-88D VWPS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS SHOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS
ARE ESTIMATED TO THE EAST AT 50 KT WHICH SHOULD HELP BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS BE EFFICIENT PRODUCERS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES.. 05/07/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 38169591 38159634 38489635 38519694 38869691 38859648
39009650 39039636 39169635 39399671 39549657 39579681
39999683 40029737 40699736 40709690 40539690 40499641
40769642 40759587 40919583 40889354 40589357 40569338
39739337 39709326 39409318 39269348 38589353 38589404
38459410 38499463 38399467 38439596 38169591

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