SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080636
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-080730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SWRN PA/SERN OH/NRN WV PANHANDLE SWD
INTO WV/ERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145...
VALID 080636Z - 080730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145
CONTINUES.
WW 145 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO WANE
ACROSS CENTRAL-SWRN PA SWWD INTO WV/ERN KY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING EWD INTO THESE STATES OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z...THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NY SWD THROUGH CENTRAL-ERN PA...
AND THEN SWWD THROUGH WRN VA TO NRN GA.
DESPITE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /90-150 METERS AT H5/ FROM LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO UPPER TN VALLEY THAT WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO REDUCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITHIN WW 145
AND FURTHER S INTO ERN KY/WV. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
WSR-88D VWPS FROM SRN NY TO ERN TN INDICATED 40-50 KT WIND SPEEDS
DOWN TO 0.5 KM AGL. IN ADDITION...25 DEGREE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ACROSS WV MAY ENHANCE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES.
..PETERS.. 05/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 42017803 41947646 41027709 39617913 37998099 36928248
36998350 37768312 38658207 40268019 40837890 42017803
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