Sunday, May 16, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0579

ACUS11 KWNS 160937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160937
TXZ000-161130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160937Z - 161130Z

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS.

STORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER SWRN TX...LIKELY AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF A
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES TO -13 C NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE. AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR SAT WWD INTO NRN MEXICO. AREA PROFILERS AND GPS WATER VAPOR
SENSORS INDICATE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL TROUGH...IS HELPING STORMS TO FORM
DESPITE A RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE AIR MASS N OF THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MOISTURE...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL...WITH A FEW 1.50 TO 2.O0 INCH STONES POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CORES. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO DISINTEGRATE
AROUND EDWARDS COUNTY...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT 850 FLOW WITH EWD EXTENT AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE CIN.

..JEWELL.. 05/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29420274 29130293 29380346 29670368 30050370 30300345
30380309 30400242 30450113 30510013 30419982 30019981
29260026 28880068 29080079 29490109 29570136 29660154
29710187 29750226 29640261 29420274

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