Tuesday, May 18, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0609

ACUS11 KWNS 182004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182003
TXZ000-182200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182003Z - 182200Z

VSB SATL SHOWS TCU BEGINNING TO SPROUT ALONG THE E/S EDGE OF THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF BREWSTER COUNTY. WHILE
THE CAP/LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS COMPARATIVELY STRONGER/WEAKER
RESPECTIVELY...HEATING ALONE MAY YIELD ISOLD TSTM INITIATION 21-22Z
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID/LWR TRANSPECOS...STOCKTON PLATEAU OR BIG BEND
REGION. THE DISCUSSION AREA IS LOCATED JUST S OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5
DEG C PER KM AND RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE E...SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY
COULD SURVIVE AS FAR E AS THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN BY EARLY/MID
EVENING. ANTICIPATED ISOLD NATURE TO THE SVR THREAT WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE A WW.

..RACY.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29020352 29930349 30490285 31110251 31800242 31940195
31740121 31330075 30590078 29390113 28780187 28610218
29020352

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