SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211446
GAZ000-ALZ000-211545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL EWD INTO CENTRAL GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211446Z - 211545Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
AL ESEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL GA LATER THIS MORNING.
A SMALL BOW ECHO WAS LOCATED IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AL AND WAS MOVING
ESEWD AT 25-30 KT. THE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM ALONG WITH 30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG SUGGESTS ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INHIBITING THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARD 80 DEGREES AND DESTABILIZES
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STORM UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INTENSIFY.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY. WIND
DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM BHM TO AUO TO MCN SHOULD HELP TO
DRIVE THE STORMS MORE SEWD WITH TIME.
..IMY.. 05/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 31498431 31808530 32248612 32758655 33318603 33558555
33488456 33098361 32018267 31428312 31498431
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